Normalisation of Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan
On July 13, 2026, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that Armenia has a “reliable source” of fuel in Azerbaijan. However, Armenia’s fuel imports from Azerbaijan remain limited.
The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan
At a July forum in Shusha, Karabakh, Aliyev highlighted regional transit and noted that over 40,000 tonnes of cargo had been transported from Russia, Kazakhstan, and other countries to Armenia via Azerbaijan.
“Furthermore, Azerbaijan has started exporting petroleum products directly to Armenia. To the best of my knowledge, over 10,000 tonnes have already been supplied,” Aliyev noted.
“Despite global fuel shortages, Armenia now benefits from a stable and reliable supply, and that supplier is Azerbaijan,” the Azerbaijani president stated.
“Without this partnership, Armenia would likely have to search internationally for sources of gasoline and diesel,” he added.
Armenia’s Foreign Policy
On July 6, 2026, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited the Russian Federation on a working trip.
While there, he took part in the Innoprom 2026 International Industrial Exhibition titled Industry 360: Production without Borders. As part of the visit, Pashinyan met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Nikol Pashinyan and Mikhail Mishustin
Armenia’s External Economic Relations
In the first five months of 2026, trade turnover between Armenia and Russia fell by 20.5 percent compared to the same period of 2025, according to Armenia’s Statistical Committee. This decline coincided with ongoing Russian restrictions on Armenian imports, and likely reflected a significant drop in Russian re-exports of precious metals and stones through Armenia.
Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner. Bilateral trade increased significantly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
From January to May 2026, trade turnover between Armenia and Russia totalled nearly $2.2 billion, down from almost $2.8 billion in the same period of 2025. This is a decrease of approximately $570 million.
Russia’s share of Armenia’s total foreign trade turnover also declined, from 35.1 percent to 28 percent.
Meanwhile, Armenia’s overall foreign trade remained stable. In the first five months of 2026, total foreign trade turnover stood at $7.865 billion, just 0.1 percent lower than the $7.870 billion recorded in the same period of 2025.
The Russian state news agency TASS reported a 21.5 percent decline in bilateral trade. However, Armenia’s Statistical Committee data indicate a decrease of approximately 20.5 percent.
According to the same data, the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union’s share of Armenia’s total trade turnover fell from 36.7 percent in January-May 2025 to 29.8 percent in the same period of 2026.
These figures follow Russia’s restrictions on Armenian goods entering the Russian market and on the transit of certain Armenian products through Russia to other EAEU countries. These measures were tightened before Armenia’s June parliamentary elections and were widely seen, both domestically and internationally, as an attempt by Moscow to influence Yerevan’s political decisions through economic pressure.
Armenia’s domestic policy
On July 6, 2026, Armenian authorities arrested Gagik Tsarukyan, leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party, on charges of fraud and money laundering.
Gagik Tsarukyan
Armenia’s Investigative Committee reports that between 2022 and 2024, an organised group led by Tsarukyan committed a series of large-scale financial crimes, including fraud, falsification of customs documents, and money laundering.
The committee estimates that these activities resulted in losses exceeding $21 million.
“They intentionally falsified customs declarations and other official records, concealing misappropriated assets,” the statement noted.
A separate aspect of the investigation reportedly involves a fraudulent fuel import scheme that generated around $934,000 in illicit profits. Authorities detained another person alongside Tsarukyan, while a third suspect remains at large.
On July 9, 2026, Aregnaz Manukyan, a board member of Armenia’s opposition ‘Mother Armenia’ party, was arrested and ordered to two months of pretrial detention.
Aregnaz Manukyan
Armenia’s Investigative Committee initiated criminal proceedings against Aregnaz Manukyan under Part 1 of Article 427 of the Criminal Code, related to the unauthorised disclosure of state secrets.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy
On July 13, 2026, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made the following remarks regarding the Russia-Ukraine war:
“I repeat the advice I gave Ukraine last year: do not accept the conflict as permanent. That is precisely how they are acting. Over the years, there have been many difficult periods, and we have witnessed them. Various groups have attempted to exert pressure, proposing a halt to military operations and the effective consolidation of occupation. The Ukrainian people and their authorities firmly rejected such proposals.
“I lead a country that once suffered from occupation, giving us unique experience in such matters. We, too, faced pressure to relinquish Karabakh. No one in Azerbaijan, including myself, would have accepted that, even though it was the stance of three major world powers, all permanent members of the UN Security Council. Opposing their position was extremely difficult.
“I am well aware of President Zelenskyy’s publicly stated position. During his April visit to Azerbaijan, we discussed this matter. Regardless, Azerbaijan’s stance remains unchanged: we have always supported, and will continue to support, Ukraine’s territorial integrity. We uphold its sovereignty and the inviolability of its borders. No country should change another’s borders without the consent of its people. Our position is consistent.
“We do everything possible for Ukraine; not for publicity, but out of genuine conviction. Both state and society are unified: we must do all we can for those who are suffering and for a country whose territorial integrity has been violated.”
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov criticised Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s remarks in support of Ukraine, calling his stance “erroneous.” Peskov stated that Russia would explain its position to Azerbaijan through all available channels, emphasising a consistent and reasoned approach.
Peskov asserted that Russia “categorically disagrees” with Aliyev’s position, noting this remains a point of contention between the two countries. However, he stressed that the disagreement should not harm Russian-Azerbaijani relations.
“Regarding the position on Ukraine, we believe it is erroneous and will explain, through all available channels, and in a consistent, reasoned manner, why we hold this view,” Peskov said.
Peskov noted that Azerbaijan’s stance is shared by several other countries with which Russia maintains close ties. Nevertheless, he emphasised Moscow’s pragmatic approach and its intention to continue developing relations with Azerbaijan despite the disagreement.
“Several countries with which we have close relations share this position. We categorically disagree, and this remains a point of contention. Still, this should not negatively impact bilateral Russian-Azerbaijani relations. We are taking a pragmatic approach and believe we should continue developing relations in all areas, especially with a country like Azerbaijan,” Peskov added.
President Ilham Aliyev announced that Baku is considering a complete withdrawal from the Council of Europe, following the suspension of Azerbaijan’s voting rights in the Parliamentary Assembly in 2024.
Aliyev noted that the issue had moved beyond the suspension or freezing of Azerbaijan’s participation. “We are seriously considering withdrawing from this structure,” he emphasised.
Aliyev later said that Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset contacted him personally, encouraging Azerbaijan to seek improvement rather than withdrawal from the organisation.