This online discussion explores the evolving security landscape of the Baltic states amid growing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. For decades, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have relied on the United States as the cornerstone of their security architecture within NATO. However, recent debates about a possible reduction of U.S. commitments to Europe raise questions about the credibility and sustainability of this model. The conversation assesses how indispensable the U.S. security umbrella remains and what risks could emerge if it were weakened. It also examines whether European allies – including Nordic countries and formats such as the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force – could compensate for a reduced American role. A key focus is the changing threat environment shaped by Russia’s war against Ukraine. The discussion considers scenarios ranging from hybrid operations to conventional risks, as well as the role of Belarus and the strategic importance of Kaliningrad. Beyond military aspects, the dialogue highlights societal resilience, economic preparedness, and comprehensive defence models in the Baltic states, alongside the evolving role of the European Union in security and crisis response.
Participants:
Ekke Nõmm – Director of the Estonian School of Diplomacy
Taavi Toom – journalist and former diplomat
Kakha Gogolashvili – EU policy researcher (moderator)