Introduction
Over the past two weeks, developments in the North Caucasus have differed little from the general patterns observed throughout the year. As anticipated, the repercussions of the war in Ukraine continue to resonate across the region. Reports of new casualties among North Caucasian servicemen have dominated local news outlets, while Ukrainian drones have occasionally entered the region’s airspace. Sporadic arrests and investigations related to alleged terrorist activity have also taken place. These developments will be discussed in more detail in the sections dedicated to each republic. However, one event, affecting the wider Caucasus region to varying degrees, stands out and warrants particular attention.
This notable, and somewhat unexpected, development in the North Caucasus has been linked to the proposed redesign of the 500-ruble banknote. Russian authorities decided to update its imagery to feature symbols representing the Caucasus on both the front and reverse sides. To select the final design, the Central Bank of Russia launched an online vote on its website, scheduled to run from 1 to 14 October. The competition for the front side of the note passed without incident, with the most popular designs being those featuring the Academic (Elizabeth) Gallery in Pyatigorsk, followed by Mount Beshtau and Lermontov’s Gallery, also in Pyatigorsk. The main controversy centred on the reverse side, where three designs were in contention: downtown Grozny City in Chechnya, Mount Elbrus, and the Derbent Fortress in Dagestan. Russian nationalist and militarist bloggers campaigned in favour of Mount Elbrus, while Ramzan Kadyrov’s administration mobilised supporters to vote for Grozny. Both sides attempted to boost their voters’ numbers, eventually leading the Central Bank to take down the vote from its website altogether. Chechnya’s Minister of Press and Information, Akhmed Dudaev, accused Russian voters supporting Mount Elbrus of nationalism and chauvinism. After the poll was taken down, Dudaev remarked: “Congratulations on the victory! The unjust vote has been stopped!”
Even such a seemingly minor yet symbolically charged episode—and, in particular, the reaction of the Russian authorities to it—reveals much about the power dynamics in the North Caucasus. The underlying distrust between Ramzan Kadyrov and certain segments of the Russian elite is increasingly evident. Many circles in Moscow appear frustrated with Kadyrov’s impunity, to the extent that they were unwilling to grant him even a symbolic prize, such as the featuring of images of Chechnya on a Russian national banknote. The war in Ukraine has reinforced nationalist sentiment within Russia, particularly among groups espousing anti-Caucasian and anti-Kadyrov views. The processes surrounding this vote reflected and amplified those prevailing attitudes.
Statistical updates
As of 22 October, the confirmed death toll of North Caucasian residents in the war in Ukraine had reached 3,127. The regional breakdown is as follows: Dagestan – 1,602; North Ossetia – 496; Kabardino-Balkaria – 308; Chechnya – 250; Karachaevo-Cherkessia – 174; Ingushetia – 173; and Adyghea – 124.
Adyghea
In 2023, a citizen of Uzbekistan was arrested in Adyghea and subsequently charged by the military court in Rostov for alleged recruitment activities on behalf of the Islamic State. The individual, identified as Sirozhiddin Tukhtaev, was accused of membership in and facilitation of a terrorist organisation—offences carrying a potential sentence of between ten and twenty years’ imprisonment. According to the investigation, while residing in Adyghea, Tukhtaev maintained online correspondence with an underage girl, allegedly attempting to persuade her to join the Islamic State. In addition, during his detention, he is reported to have shared radical Islamist ideas with a fellow inmate.
Compared with other regions of the North Caucasus, Adyghea has remained an island of stability, and has largely avoided jihadi mobilisation. Even during the Chechen wars and the peak of activity of the Imārat Kavkaz network in neighbouring republics, Adyghea experienced no significant militant activity, and no sustained jihadist networks were established there. Notably, even prominent ethnic Circassian jihadist leaders such as Anzor Astemirov, Musa Mukozhev and Kazbek Teshuev failed to disseminate their message effectively or gain traction among the Circassian population of Adyghea. This limited receptivity to jihadist ideas can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the high degree of secularisation among Circassians in Adyghea, and the predominance of local nationalist sentiment over religious radicalism.
Karachaevo-Cherkessia
A group of Jehovah’s Witnesses from Karachaevo-Cherkessia received suspended sentences for alleged membership in an extremist organisation. In August 2024, local law enforcement agencies conducted searches in the homes of Jehovah’s Witnesses Tatyana Pasynkova, Maria Ogoreva, and her daughter, Svetlana Ogoreva. The following month, in September 2024, they were given suspended sentences ranging from five to six years. Subsequently, the regional court of the Khabez district handed a four-year suspended sentence to 60-year-old pensioner Tatyana Pasynkova. The basis for their prosecution was their participation in collective prayers held by the local Jehovah’s Witnesses community.
Jehovah’s Witnesses are among the most persecuted religious communities in Russia. In 2017, the organisation was officially designated as extremist by the Russian authorities. In the North Caucasus, Jehovah’s Witnesses face particularly intense pressure from both Russian law enforcement agencies and the local Muslim population, especially when converts hail from a Muslim background. As a result, most active members of the community in the North Caucasus are ethnic Russians, who experience considerably less social pressure compared to members of the region’s Muslim ethnic groups.
Kabardino-Balkaria
On 19 October, a mountaineer from Costa Rica died while climbing Mount Elbrus. The 49-year-old tourist was part of an unregistered group, and fell ill at an altitude of 5,200 metres above sea level. He did not receive medical assistance and subsequently died. A rescue team from Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations was mobilised to evacuate the body.
Winter tourism and mountaineering are among the main sources of income in Kabardino-Balkaria. Tourist facilities in the mountainous regions often fall within the business interests of local ruling elites. However, the infrastructure frequently remains in poor condition, leading to recurrent accidents. For example, in September 2025, three visitors died following the fall of a cable car in Nalchik. In another incident, a mountaineer from Belarus went missing in the mountainous area of the Chegem district. Due to the frequency of such tragedies, the tourism sector of Kabardino-Balkaria has failed to attract a substantial number of international tourists.
North Ossetia
On 21 October, a drone attack alert was issued in North Ossetia following a large-scale Ukrainian drone strike in Rostov Oblast. Sergey Menyailo, the head of North Ossetia, posted a statement on his Telegram channel urging residents of the republic to exercise caution, and warning of potential disruptions to mobile networks and internet connectivity.
Although North Ossetia has never been a primary target of Ukrainian drone strikes, the local population is highly sensitive to such events. The republic has suffered one of the highest death tolls of soldiers deployed to Ukraine among all Russian regions. Military service in the Russian armed forces is widely considered as prestigious and a means of social advancement, reflecting the comparatively strong loyalty of North Ossetians to Russian authorities, relative to other North Caucasus regions. In addition, the republic hosts a number of military infrastructure facilities of Russia’s 58th Army.
Ingushetia
Ingushetia has ranked among the top three regions of Russia for the fastest-growing tourism sector. According to official statistics, the number of visitors increased fivefold between 2014 and 2025, with the peak tourist season occurring during the summer months. Estimates indicate that Ingushetia is expected to host over 130,000 tourists this year.
Such remarkable growth is unsurprising. Ingushetia is home to a unique historical and cultural heritage, including the Erzi tower complex in the mountains and several medieval Christian churches, such as Tkhaba-Yerdy and Albi-Yerdy. In addition, the republic attracts mountaineers and nature enthusiasts with its national parks and diverse landscapes. At present, Ingushetia offers more than 30 active tourist routes. Previously, tourism development in the mountainous areas was impossible, as the region had been designated a counterterrorist operation zone, and visits by non-locals were restricted. Once these restrictions were lifted, the development of the tourism sector became possible.
Chechnya
On 19 October, 23-year-old Chechen woman Aishat Baymuradova was found dead in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. Baymuradova, who had fled Chechnya with the help of human rights activists after experiencing domestic abuse, had been residing in Armenia. Reportedly, some of her relatives were employed in Chechnya’s law enforcement agencies. According to her friends, Baymuradova was not cautious when using social media, frequently posting updates that exposed her location and made it easier to track her movements.
The death of Aishat Baymuradova represents a continuation of the pattern of honour killings prevalent in the North Caucasus, particularly in Chechnya. In most cases, women are murdered by male relatives for allegedly “deviating from traditional norms.” Such attitudes have been publicly reinforced by Ramzan Kadyrov, who once stated that “according to our traditions, if a woman commits adultery, sleeps with a man who is not her husband, both must be killed.” In several documented instances, high-ranking Chechen officials have reportedly used administrative resources to locate and forcibly return women who had fled abusive family environments.
Dagestan
An unusual form of local protest occurred in the village of Khorej, Khiva District, Dagestan. A group of residents, including veterans of the war in Ukraine, released a video statement demanding the completion of a kindergarten that has remained under construction since 2013. In response, the Head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, issued an explanation for the prolonged delay, stating that the project had initially been financed from the local budget but stalled once funding ran out. Melikov pledged that a new kindergarten would be completed and opened in Khiva by 2026.
Although seemingly a local protest, the incident highlights an important emerging trend. The participation of veterans of the war in Ukraine in this video suggests that war returnees are gradually becoming influential local opinion leaders, capable of advocating for their own interests and engaging directly with the authorities. In the absence of meaningful political processes or active opposition movements, and with Islamist groups significantly weakened in Dagestan, these veterans have the potential to form grassroots local interest groups and to play an increasingly visible role in civic mobilisation and protest activity.
Diaspora
Dagestani activist Abakar Abakarov, who had been residing in Istanbul for an extended period, was assassinated on 17 October. According to his associates, two to three days before his death, he had travelled to Yalova to meet representatives of the Dagestani diaspora. Contact with him was subsequently lost. Initially, his friends assumed that he might have been detained, but later his body was discovered. Abakarov was reportedly one of the administrators of the Telegram channel Utro Dagestan, which was active during the 2022 protests in Makhachkala against forced mobilisation for the war in Ukraine, as well as during the anti-Jewish riots at Makhachkala airport on 30 October 2023. He also ran his own YouTube channel, where he voiced strong criticism of Russian government policies and openly advocated for Dagestan’s secession.
The assassination of Abakar Abakarov appears to be part of a broader pattern of targeted killings of North Caucasians living in exile. Among the most prominent cases are the assassinations of Chechen commanders such as Haji Edilsultanov, Islam Janibekov, Musa Ataev, and Abdulwahid Edilgireev. Civil activists, including the Turkish-Chechen public figure Medet Önlü, have also been murdered. This pattern demonstrates that anti-Russian North Caucasian activists remain unsafe even in countries such as Turkey, where many sought refuge.